Winning the Visa Lottery

(aeaweb.org)

28 points | by neehao 2 hours ago

8 comments

  • collabs 0 minutes ago
    > The results suggest that low-skill foreign and low-skill American workers are poor substitutes for one another. The authors' estimates put the elasticity of substitution between H-2B and US workers at roughly 0.8 to 2.2, far below related studies of immigrants in low-skill work, which typically find an elasticity of 4 to 10, and nowhere near the perfect substitutability assumed in some influential studies.

    I feel like the wording "low-skill" has become a technical term that doesn't mean what the word says and it makes people make assumptions they shouldn't with regards to these jobs. A lot of these so called low skill jobs require a highly specific job experience and/or productivity to simply keep pace and not drag down the rest of the team. We talk about Joel Spolsky and how a poor hire in a software development team can hurt morale but it simply isn't that big of a factor with us as it is in these so called low-skilled jobs but we aren't ready for that conversation.

    Also about housing, who do you think builds all these additional housing units if we don't bring in the labor we need to build them?

  • bambax 52 minutes ago
    > "When policy is politically polarized, you need more facts," he said.

    Mmmm... It seems in the world of politics, esp. populist politics, more facts don't bring better policies. They are simply ignored, or accused of being lies pushed by the ennemies.

    > "We have all the facts on this we need. We don't need any more facts. In the land of truth, my friend, the man with one fact is the king."

    -- Linton Barwick, In The Loop (2009)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdoN1LWGgfQ

    • throwup238 22 minutes ago
      Finally a The Thick of It reference in HN.

      An AUS Utopia reference would probably be more fitting though.

  • HexPhantom 5 minutes ago
    The lottery is what makes this unusually interesting. A lot of immigration/labor studies get stuck on the obvious selection problem: firms that hire immigrant workers are probably different from firms that don't in a dozen other ways.
  • fwlr 44 minutes ago
    The firms who do not win the visa lottery “just become smaller firms” instead of hiring market-rate labor because they still have to compete in a market against other firms who won the visa lottery and have access to below-market-rate labor.

    Did the economists who ran this study miss this? Do they explain it?

    • grubbydiff 26 minutes ago
      Have you gotten a chance to read the paper? If not, you should consider reading it. They have explained it. It's got to do around the fact that domestic labor supply is inleastic but the foreign supply is infinitely elastic. You might want to focus on sections VI and VII for more details around their model and assumptions.
    • emmelaich 30 minutes ago
      AEA leans strongly left. I wouldn't put much store in this.
      • grubbydiff 25 minutes ago
        "Reality has a well-known liberal bias."
    • HexPhantom 2 minutes ago
      [dead]
  • mrjay42 28 minutes ago
    > "Evidence from a US government lottery shows that restricting foreign low-skill workers shrinks businesses without creating jobs for Americans."

    Proving that the issue is capitalism and its systemic need for a reserve army of labour (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_army_of_labour) to pressure people to accept unfair conditions of living/work

  • ralph84 38 minutes ago
    > Cmd-F housing

    > not found

    Yet another chamber of commerce article clamoring for more cheap labor without addressing where all of these people are supposed to live.

    • hiddencost 0 minutes ago
      Uh, in the housing that they build? The amount of housing we can build with cheap immigrant labor is so much more than what we can do without them. Housing gets more expensive when immigrants are pushed out, because the cost to build rises more than the reduced demand reduces prices.
    • zanderwohl 24 minutes ago
      It is rather puzzling how this major contributing factor is going overlooked. It seems obvious from ground-level. Economists often talk about how expensive labor drives price increases, but don't talk about how price increases cause expensive labor.
    • grubbydiff 17 minutes ago
      Did you get a chance to read the paper? Did you read Section VII and footnote 51? If so, do you still believe that the article is "clamoring for more 'cheap' labor?"

      And what other issues would you like to see besides housing and employment in the article?

  • aspldez 21 minutes ago
    [flagged]